The NRL is the premier rugby league competition in the world, featuring intense, physical, and thrilling action over 26 rounds annually. However, this championship can be difficult to predict with winners rarely remaining consistent from week to week.
Thankfully, there is an easy way to decide which NRL teams you should follow: form ratings!
How to pick an NRL team to win. The form rating is an algorithm that attempts to monitor regular season results. It takes the latest data from NRL teams and compares it with that of all other teams to provide insight into which ones have performed best over time.
It takes into account each team’s recent results and their average score over the past six to eight weeks, which are then used to calculate an expected margin between two teams. If a team outperforms this margin, its form rating goes up.
For instance, if the NRL team that you are following has a form rating of +100 and they beat a team with an expected margin of -100%, their rating would increase to +200. This indicates they are much more likely to win a head-to-head tipping game than those teams with margins of -50% or lower.
Another great way to decide which NRL teams to support is using the ETxP (expected points per game) metric. Essentially, this metric calculates what percentage of points each team will score based on the average score for other teams in a match.
Round 1 saw an impressive number of teams surpass their predicted points totals, underscoring the significance of field position. Only five clubs with expected point averages over -60% failed to outperform their positions in terms of scoring.
In this round, the Sharks and Dragons are two of the top teams in the NRL with both sides scoring over 50 points. Both sides possess strong defensive capabilities as well as some explosive try scorers, so I predict these sides will make quick work of the Tigers this week.
This week is an ideal round for NRL betting. As it’s the last week of the season, many teams will be striving to end on a high note. The Broncos have been on an impressive run of form recently and should prove difficult to crack against the Titans this week. They struggle defending their line while the Broncos rank among NRL’s best at this task, providing fans with plenty of action this weekend.
The Roosters are one of the most intriguing sides in the NRL and they possess a tremendous amount of potential this year. Trent Robinson is back at the helm, Luke Keary is returning from injury and Joseph Sua’ali’i looks like one of the biggest stars in the NRL right now.
The Roosters boast a wealth of talent on their side, making them an obvious favorite to win the NRL this year. Their forward pack is packed with quality players who can run quickly. Additionally, their back row boasts several hard-hitting players and Adam Reynolds provides excellent kicking service. The Roosters will surely go all the way this year with such strong credentials behind them!